Category: My Research

All forms of government destroy themselves by carrying their basic principle to excess.
[Will Durant].

Fatal cycle of political evolution known to us through Plato: monarchy, aristocracy, oligarchic exploitation, democracy, revolutionary chaos & dictatorship; allows us to view the current state of affairs in Pakistan in an objective manner. Providing us with some structure to predict its direction. While shades of each may seem to contribute, the dominant pattern appears to be an overlap between the last three stages. Its subjective interpretations ostensibly suggest this impasse is secondary to the whim of one person or an edict of a narrow class. Pompey the Roman general (circa ~ 100-50 BCE) when questioned about the legality of his military actions in Sicily, in his reply said “do not quote laws to us to we hold the swords”. True then as now. And suffice it to say that, in a systole & diastole of a nation’s life, the age of freedom seems to be ending & the age of discipline has begun. 
 
Democracy is a luxury of disseminated intelligence, security and peace. They who claim the electoral rules of democracy must prevail overlook the reality that Pakistan does not satisfy any of these democratic essentials. The State of Pakistan is merely yet a carved out geographic treaty with its neighbors. It lacks the homogeneity needed for a true Westphalian Nation State. And geography has historically smiled at such unstable treaties. Safeguarding this geography of the carved out state thus remains the basic principle of our political elites. So be it, and do away with it, might democracy try to come in the way of this basic principle.
 
A Philosopher might argue Man is never free. And freedom is a myth. But we continuously observe that Man has chosen by fighting wars time & again, to pay the asking price for this myth. Relations between States (Int’l Relations) politely depart from the philosophers and take freedom a priori for the states to exercise their will. International Relation’s theory of Realism posits the absence of a supranational governing structure. States, thus operate in anarchy. Those States which have the free will to exercise their foreign policy suited to their national interests are therefore considered free. This is what Azadi actually is…i.e. the earned luxury to exercise the free will domestically & abroad. Which in turn is a function commensurate with a State’s strength. Measured in GDP, military strength, population size, literacy & cohesiveness, and to some extent to which civilization the State traces its roots back to. Now, this is interesting; Pakistan lies at the center of where four out of the five remaining major (Indic, Sinic, Orthodox, Muslim & Western) civilizations meet. However, it has remained unable to garner a defendable & dependable social or political alignment with any of them. Sinic in its northeast and Orthodox in its northwest are a nonstarter. Between the remaining Indic to its east & the Muslim swathes to its west its relations with them too have remained frictional. As a result it stands all alone. With no one in the neighborhood to politically fall back onto.
 
Evolutionary time required for a geographical area such as Pakistan, trying to morph into a nation, is generational in order. And often painfully slow. It requires statesmen who are strategists; artists who have the freedom to express; philosophers who are well fed to think & a common faith chipping in with its multiplier role to help maintain social order. But most important of all; it requires a willing coalition of like-minded narrow group of elites. Those who perpetually and intelligently remain busy in formation of an ever evolving strategy suited to their advantage. Pakistan has had at its helm its army as that elite group for over half of its national life. With their training primarily being tactical they find themselves hamstrung when the job overnight requires them to bring out from within a strategist. This unease then becomes evident to the detriment of the state when & wherever the military comes to power.
 
I was recently listening to a commentary by one analyst whom I admire. Where he sees a systemic defect in the Pakistan army not the way I see it. He points out the problem at the top. Which is the lack of accountability of the COAS. Practically being above the law so to speak. Hence he argues to truncate his status. I don’t agree with that. I argue, Man by nature is inclined to do inhuman things. Before one is civilized one is primarily more passionate than rational. Hobbesian commonwealth with Machiavellian tactics came a century before Rousseau’s social contract. A State to maintain its social order has to owe its freedom & defense to a mortal god under the immortal God, making him/her the sovereign of the commonwealth. His/her power therefore has to be absolute. We are not an island nation. Our geography does not allow us the luxury of a revolt nor does our inhomogeneous population nor does a prying neighborhood. Our obsession for a revolt has a prohibitive cost of dismemberment. Case in point Bangladesh 52 years ago. It is not therefore the systemic fault of the Pakistan army how it assigns sovereignty to its leader which is to be blamed for every ill. It has more to do what that leader does with that assigned sovereignty.
 
Monarchies were the dominant form of political governance for known history. We see no reason for this system not to work. The reason our army leadership has struggled to deliver dividends is inherently everything to do with their training grounded in tactics (short term objectives). Strategy (long term objectives) on the other hand is the work of a philosopher who is versed in everything. The geo-economic constraints they have to perpetually operate in remain the same or probably get worse with their time in office. Undertrained for statecraft & overtasked for public office, army personnel as a result resort to domestic political outsourcing and a quid pro quo appeasement internationally.
 
Unwise choices and decisions have been made but so have some useful ones been too. A nuclear deterrent in my opinion in this anarchical world order was quite strategic. I don’t think there has been an ulterior motive all along. Their grasp on power and unwillingness to share it was simply rooted in an existential fear. Some may argue it was fabricated or hyped up. I think the Pakistan army has always felt that relinquishing sovereignty to the parliament was a risk not commensurate with the benefit. Contrary to what Quaid had advised, they remained afraid to trust the popular mandate. During intervals of civil rule, dynastic political proxies were propped & staged. This power sharing structure precluded any entity or person taking full ownership and full accountability for anything. States typically get rich first and then become militarily strong. The paranoid Pakistani state somewhere along its journey went about turn.
 
Imran Khan used the same power structure for his parliamentary (premiership) introduction. Some of his objectives ended up being at odds locally and others at odds internationally. He is no less a Hobbesian to demand the buck stop at him, kind of an authority. He rightly believes there should only be one leader calling the shots. And then be solely accountable for that. During his time in office he first assumed and later demanded this absolutism. However, the army was simply not willing to part with it that quickly. He miscalculated the fragility of our democracy and over relied on his perceived mandate.
 
His Anti Ghulami (enslavement) & Pro Azadi (being free) narrative in an Islamic garb seems to resonate with everyone who follows the Muslim tradition. A Muslim ought to beg in freedom rather than decay in bonds is exactly what Islam is all about. If you’re a Muslim then the choice is simple. Nevertheless, in an anarchical Nation State structure, all the international movers & shakers do not quite subscribe to this tradition. To them the crown & the clergy are separate. They do not accept our subscription of the sovereignty to Allah. They place that in the State. This ideological dissonance in my opinion is the fundamental conflict of any poor Muslim state that has to operate in current loosely rule based international liberal world order. We make a whole lot of enemies if we go against it and that was the second reason behind his ousting.
 
Admittedly he fought back and surprised many. He is now The populist leader of Pakistan. By calling out Pakistani elite establishment an extractive intuition he has however landed himself in a Thucydides Trap. His rise will mean the downfall of the army. Imperialists, tyrants, abrogator of the constitution are a few adjectives he has repeatedly ascribed to them. He might have come to power initially on borrowed legs of the army, he has now become a force to recon with. And if it is played by the book i.e. normally accepted rules of democracy, he is expected to win the office by a landslide majority. Pakistanis have felt disenfranchised for such a long time, that in him they now see the mythical union of a philosopher and a saint, producing the sage.
 
But then what to do with our domestic Papal States. I draw this analogy very thoughtfully. After the fall of the Roman Empire (circa ~ century 5th AD) it was the Catholic Church (and its Papal Pontiffs & States in the Italian peninsula) that held the Western civilization together for over a thousand years. Pakistan Army feels they have done the same and they just can’t simply be asked to resign from their political role and retire and return to their barracks. Their earlier hybrid power sharing experience with him did not go well. Khan’s pan-Islamism was proving very costly to the secular leaning façade of the Pakistan Army. They were losing old anchors. Had they not taken him out constitutionally they would have soon found themselves adrift in uncharted and rough international seas. However, this recapture of the post at the helm has come at an immense cost to every Pakistani. Military & civilian alike. Stagflation is an equal opportunity offender. 
 
One can assume with considerable certainty that Pakistanis have en-masse subscribed to Imran’s counter narrative to the decades old narrative that the Pakistan army had. A common man & woman sees in him a messiah who would take them to the Promised Land i.e. a prosperous & peaceful Pakistan. Instead of hearing a counter-counter narrative coming from the army, what is now being witnessed internationally and experienced locally is something quite alarming.  A paranoid heavy handed ruthless short sighted tyrannical above the law authoritarian demon. This is what Pakistanis see now, in their own…once so beloved an army. This army-Imran zero sum game is a loss to every Pakistani. Army like Imran & Imran like army is not a panacea. Between the two of them if they are able to overcome the mutual exclusivity they can have additive or multiplicative benefits. Disappointingly, it is so polarized now, that both are suicidally immune to advice. 
 
Alienating their own people shall cost the army dearly in the medium to long term. Economic prosperity needs peace and happiness & incentivized industry. India was blessed with forty years of peace between 1980 and 2020. Whereas we remained embroiled or employed in three major wars. During those decades India was able to educate two generations & open its economy to the world. Were these just wars thrust upon us or were these wars of our choosing; labelling Pakistan a rental state, is beyond the scope of this humble writing. Point is, we have to catch up on a lot and a lot faster and we must stop digging ourselves into a deeper hole.
 
Arrests of our intellectuals arrests us intellectually…Pakistanis are in a state of shock & awe. So demoralized; one can akin them to medieval Jews in Christian or foreign lands. After all who on earth kills the goose that lays the golden egg i.e. morale of your people! Without domestically generated money neither army nor political Pakistan can prevail. This has been the recurring theme in history of how states whither.
 
I admire Imran Khan and so should Pakistan Army, for showing strategic understanding by saying, I quote “Pakistan Army is more important for Pakistan than Imran Khan”. I believe he really wants to work with them and the latter should not arm twist him to work for them. Nations like individuals have an unconscious. Called the collective unconscious. It follows the similar path to transformation as it does in individuals (individuation). Making its way through the same alchemical stages of Nigredo, Rubedo and lastly Albedo. If stunted in any of these individuation stages a nation falls prey to its own darkest shadows. Most don’t come out of it unscathed. Most don’t even come out of it at all! Just as an individual is then unable to live his or her life to the fullest, nations too, have to endure a generational trauma. Ego(s) that would not allow a nation’s collective unconscious to individuate would result in a complexed nation. Neither self-assured nor proud of itself; pushed onto a certain path of decay.
 
Now I want to ask my readers a few questions. Late seventies was a different epoch. The USA fully supported us during the Cold War. It saw in us a proxy to fight a Jihad against the communist infidels. Two decades back came global terrorism and it again found in us a willing partner. We are irrelevant now. Let’s ask ourselves something: Is the USA going to put its weight behind the army as it once was able to?  With the revisionist Russia & China challenging, does it have the bandwidth? What would interest them in us now? Has that interest paid off in the past forty years? And lastly what use to a superpower is an army of a nearly bankrupt country with no popular support at their disposal? 
 
I think, instead of convenient attribution to a possible conspiracy without, we should theorize this impasse as a foolishness within. Current standoff is a risk to our national cohesion. Pakistan can implode (khakam ba dehan). The results will be irreversible and terrifying. The North will be the first to first break off and then will be redistributed between India, China and the Pashtun-Afghanistan region. PDM engaged in a dangerous dalliance with a wily friend/foe will land softly in a Punjabi merger with India becoming its client state. Charging transit money for revenue for access to the ocean and trade routes in a manner (earlier Pakistan) was doing for Afghanistan. Baluch insurgency will be bought out by the highest bidder and so would be Gawadar. Sindh and its business community will totally assimilate into India and flourish. Egos would’ve then ruled and ruined like kings. Pakistan killed to pieces. Job complete! 
 
While buying in on Imran’s narrative we must also fairly and critically examine as to why this non-inferiority comes so much easier to him. A handsome blessed bloke rubbing shoulders with the international elites at a personal level may see the West as his equal somewhat easily. Most Pakistanis do not. To them food comes first & then morality, pride or any other higher purpose. Baggage of the colonial past and recent loss of Muslim civilization to the Western civilization is met with a mortifying fear in taking on the West so boldly. The heat stricken people of South Asia do not revolt like peoples of the north do. They find solace in going back to their individual faiths. One Allah in our case. Concept of Ummah though available, is as yet alien to most Pakistanis.
 
Mr. Khan your job is half baked and not complete. Coming to power with a landslide majority still will not pay a common man dividends. Do not cave in or bargain if your heart tells you otherwise. But punt this fight off for another day-August perhaps. You will soon be labeled as a seditious pariah then what? What a waste. There is a lot of life left in you. You (the idea) mustn’t die, you must play your part and leave some for the public. You can’t make a whole crowd cross the finishing line all by yourself. You don’t lead an army. They must creep & crawl if they aren’t yet brave enough to rise above the parapet and walk or run. You mustn’t push them further or you will be pushed and punished so farther that their hopes will die with you for lord knows how many generations more.
 
Towards the end Mr. Khan, you have three themes to choose from.  The choice from the classical Greek period, the Socratic way of dying as you too have “poisoned” the youth. Or the Mohammedan Hijra; Fatah e Mecca might follow in due course. Your population is too meek and you’re one man too weak yet wise, for the too dull of a foe who is a bull right now in a china shop. Or…you go all in and call their bluff.
 
Your presence might idealistically be appreciated now, but your absence and strategic retreat will be pragmatically remembered for decades. Life is nothing but trade-offs and peace is sweeter than freedom.
 
/MQ…

This (part-a) will be followed by a complementary writing (part-b). Covering possible challenges and outcomes of yet another indirect or direct rule by Pakistan Army of State of Pakistan.

Backdrop:
It’s relatively simpler for an individual to say I am not playing the “life game” as either I don’t get it, I am bad at it and the playing field is not level or it’s in conflict with my core beliefs etc. And with that one can break off, and to each their own. Instead, the individual survival instincts join hands and make the human as a collective play this challenge of “to live” together. Natural corollary of accepting such a challenging survival, is muddling through the fittest and to prepare ourselves psychologically that there are going to be winners and losers.

Peace generally has been an anomaly and war the norm. Warring contestants were individuals & bands perhaps in the very beginning. Then as we evolved to phonate & communicate we spread our ideas locally and when became able to write, they reached to a point that we coalesced covering a larger area. We made both friends and foes along this evolutionary process.

Foes and battles took a larger share of documented history. This may be a simple demand & supply effort on the part of historians for the readers or maybe it is indeed the conflict which is the real driver of change and we humans like to learn more from it by studying more about it.

Among various traditional etiologies of war, most recent one; after European enlightenment in my opinion is the conflict between and due to ideas or simply put “Ideological conflict”; ironically on how to best serve the human race -The Humanism. Spectrum of such ideologies commonly is understood as “The Political Left & The Political Right”. Interestingly we don’t come across Islamic version of such ideas. And Political Islam ostensibly is considered at political odds with the west’s democratic ideology-more on it a little later.

Fast forward to western colonial expansion. West and its ideology went on laying claims to the Old and the New World. It was a challenge to the old world order and by claiming the title all along the political Islam and it’s authority were subdued. 

Where Pakistanis might find ourselves standing tomorrow, needs to be understood with the perspective of where and with whom we sit today. It is getting to the last quarter and there are years, & not decades left to prepare. Indecision is not our longer term friend. It can be though for short term (months)-as I argue later.

Background-Distant:
Democracy with its intuitive appeal originates from of the pagan Grecko-Roman culture long before the birth of Christ. Christian monotheism substituted for pagan deities as the official religion of Rome around 313 c.e. Posterities of that part of the Europe got okay with the Christian God from their Asian province of Judaea differing just on various iterations & interpretations of what constituted The Holy Trinity.
 
A millennium later however, in the illuminating garb of Renaissance & science we start to observe this departure back towards the ideals of the Roman Republic during the interluding Papal States. However it was not until a few centuries later that Europeans started discussing myths, dogmas and magic in light of science. One by one each started to have a slow domino fall. Previously unexplained natural phenomena (lightening/famine/plagues/celestial eclipse etc.) now were no longer due to wraths or blessings of a supernatural God in the cloud, rather they became phenomenons understood and subject to laws of Nature e.g. Astronomy took over Astrology, dogma got challenged with rational questions. Coupled with this liberation, the accumulation of wealth and economic shift to organized capitalism resulted in worldly dividends and dominance-Europe was becoming richer and happier. Naturally this progress took away the immediate desire to long for the presence of an omnipotent God.

A lackluster Muslim performance in Asia during the same centuries; i.e. after the printing press first arrived in Italy (mid fifteenth century-Ottomans discouraged its use) and trade routes circumventing Muslim controlled near East, that an organic movement we know as European renaissance caught onto Political Islam. Longtime adversary from right across the Bosphorus grew inferior & weak. Power & wealth had started to systematically shift to & accumulate in the European capitals…ebbs and flows of nature!

Background-Immediate:
With this private and state accumulation of wealth and general agreement on capitalism, European monarchs started to fancy with ideas of colonial expansions. Honing in more to recent times & our neighborhood, in Asia we observe two unique responses to this western colonial domination…humiliation & ownership.

First, India under the Raj & China after the Opium wars defeats. Both these civilizations felt so humiliated that as soon as both got their chance out from the imperial yoke, this humiliation became their impetus which then became a major driver of their progress (among others).
 
Second, British India’s independence movement was originally an Indian effort with carving of Pakistan towards the end & no taking away of kudos from all those involved in this struggling journey from the Muslim League members.
 
Let us leave China and it’s journey for some other time, in the interest of this article’s Pakistan focus. I argue it was because of this Indian humiliation being more & chronic, their efforts being more protracted & pronounced, that they took ownership of 1947 independence a lot more seriously than we did.
 
Indian Muslims woke from the fabled Rip Wan Winkle slumber and found themselves at the helm of Pakistan. A new country in a hostile milieu to be run under the directives of Pax Americana…choice made via 1950 state visit to US.
 
What we did with that public mandate in the last 75.8 years, who did what first and without going into whataboutism it suffices it to say that both India and Pakistan ended up choosing differing friends and paths. Important here is to note that this anti colonial struggle was a political freedom struggle & not an armed takeover. The point I want to drill down is that, Indian partition or Pakistani independence followed some rules acceptable to the then fitter global powers involved in that decision and process. Important!

Socio-Political Nigredo:
Pakistan was thus born to this Muslim household with the disheartening backdrop of Ottomans and the inherited rock and hard place choice of whether or not and when to, if to re-pursue political Islam. After all Pakistan was to become the ideal bastion of Islam. We were to now operate in a new world of democratic constraints carrying the colonial psychological handicap. This whole stack wasn’t amenable to a quick Democratic fix. Furthermore the indecision between Allah being the Sovereign or State is the sovereign lingers to this day. Academically these are two mutually exclusive statements and modern state architecture suggests it’s the State that is sovereign…one hears this word thrown around a lot these days.


Before we move to the current political kinetics, I want to share with my readers the unique denial & optimism combination that monotheism shares. Judaism has had the longest run of persecution and oppression in history. And up until WW-2 had remained in this denial-optimism limbo. Jewish history from followers of the Roman subject Shimon bar Yochai to the Ottoman subject Sabbatai Zevi is rife with such celestial hope in face of earthly oppression. It’s in the aftermath of WW-2 that we see a rise in atheism stemming from horrifying disbelief in their guardian faith. Persecuted Christianity in its nascency too promised the Kingdom of Haven to its oppressed believers living under the yoke of the Roman purple. Most recently it is now the Muslims who are toying and holding on to this tension of the opposites…ponder!

With these fetters understood and agreeing on that nations survive competitively with goal to avert scarcity and achieve plenty. We can commence to configure where do we go from here. What I see now is an organic Nigredo that Pakistan in my opinion is going through. I call it a Socio-Political Nigredo. It is like we or our national psyche is in The Garden of Gethsemane. Which is a place of life crisis; it permits no escape or compromise. There, we suffer the agony of choosing between personal will or willing submission to something greater [sic].
 
West and it’s major revolutions (American & French) figured out to separate the crown and the clergy and went back to their Greco-Roman democracy and its institutions. Science, logic laid newer and stronger foundations of modern democracy and due to paucity of independent reasoning (Ijtihaad) Islam remained more dogmatic than rational by western standards.
 
These are therefore two not fully congruous political systems. Each has and caters to a different Sovereign (State & Allah). Efforts towards finding a sweet spot or a common meeting ground between them remains a political unicorn at best. Democracy has had mixed & disappointing results but without a viable alternate it is all there is on the menu and I further argue, it is a constraint that we must first master before making attempts at revitalization of Political Islam.

In my earlier article I’ve gone in details of an upcoming alternative on the 10 year horizon. It is of a Civilization-State. [link please]

Opportunity in adversity 
I implore my readers to first drill in the background of where we realistically stood at the culmination of western colonial rule. It makes it easier for us to understand the system and it’s constraints. Only then we can start to analyze some more interesting facts that Pakistan can use if we look into the Intra-Western struggle for dominance that follows similar script albeit with a change of actors.
 
Agreed by most western academics is the observation that ever since the Elizabethan era (1558-1603) England has and will not like to see a stronger European power on the European continent. With the victory of Emmanuel Macron again who will vie for greater French continental dominance and the collective western resolve captioned as “Why Ukraine must win” in its April 2nd-8th Economist, it can be construed that the European war is going to be a protracted Russo-Ukrainian conflict with its aftershocks. Leading to a weakened and possibly divided nationalist Europe.
 
Pakistan must first understand this tug of war that Continental Europe and UK has historically played out. I cautiously assume many of Pakistani foreign policy elites may already do. To hedge against the perceived similar Russian aggression and expansion, NATO will shortly welcome two new member countries, Sweden and Finland. New NATO membership free ride will add to the Democratic complexity in Brussels if not the policy complexion in the long run. Making it more dysfunctional than it currently is criticized for.

Being divided, dysfunctional and yet dependent on Russian oil and gas is not a good combination. Both energy producers and recipients are going to find other markets in the long term. Russian energy will then siphon to Asia in the medium to long term giving the highest bidder what it can afford to invest in its economy. The two most obvious buyers are going to be India and China. Eventually strengthening each’s relative say in the world affairs.

Devils Due: 
So far from this article my reader may incorrectly conclude that West and its system has to be the mother of all ills. I must defend this first with two examples perhaps related to current events and stress that no system is a panacea.
 
First- A lot of Western values are laudable  especially when it comes to Humanism-and not all is evil or lost in our collective evolutionary human journey. It is once these ideologies of how best to serve the human race -a common end- come at odds on agreeing on the means to do that. In a collision path with the most of the rest, western led order under-appreciates the tail end costs of offering liberal capitalist democracy at all costs. This structural problem is failing the world that depends and runs on their order. It equates to failing oneself by failing to admit to the fact that no laws can be made contrary and in conflict to the local societal customs and still be expected to have a willing compliance…doesn’t fly that way.

Greeko-Roman democracy was born to a pagan Greece under martial and aristocratic oversight. It was its very indigenousness that helped it garner such good genes that it’s still alive. It’s Fast track imposition and implementation in a non pagan culture where sovereign is never the state and always is the Spinoza’s One or Mohammed’s Allah or the Jewish Yahweh-shall always be problematic. I again carefully surmise many of western foreign policy elites do understand this. And It’s likely that in a level playing field the west shall find itself heckled as “emperor without clothes” if they walked through the streets of Middle East capitals among a crowd that sees their version of Humanism from their lens.
 
Second- Is the claim that Democracies go to war less. The power in democracies is not as consolidated as in authoritative variations. This premise has provided for less international conflict. I appreciate this claim to the degree if I look at post WW-II Europe. However this has not given similar returns on investment and rather has led to slow prolonged societal death in countries where it’s values are in conflict to their regional customs. The liberal international order has been always more western than global — and often failed to uphold order as argued by Financial Times columnist Edward Luce who goes on to suggest that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers a chance to reconsider this largely western concept.

Shifting Sands:
Pakistan is down but not out. It remains an extremely important country geopolitically. Perhaps not as economically vital but in no less way still very important to be kept viable…good news.

Prophetic commentary on international politics requires besides all else, a true insider’s knowledge of the proceedings of the involved parties. Unfortunately that rarely is the case and observers have to keep a track on the temporarily, causality and plausibility of events. Just like you and I are out there daily because someone has to pay the bills, similarly world leaders are in perpetual state of engagement to meet their desired national ends. And this flux is quite telling if not prescriptive.

Therefore in that vein one needs to look at important developments, and must stop to question-Why is Mohammed Bin Sultan and Imran Khan equally disliked by Jo Biden.

Why is Erdogan after a long spite with MBS over Adnan Khashogi now visiting the Kingdom and hugging MBS and getting over the Khashogi tragedy.
 
Why is EU is being egged to trigger force majeure clauses so that Lloyds insurance can stop insuring the sea oil tanker trade to further squeeze it tighter on Russia & why London who is so against Russian aggression, is not so excited about this proposal.

Why US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has cautioned over outright bans and oil embargo.

Why is Ukraine re-building war-damaged oil pipelines connecting Russia to Europe & remains okay with revenue that comes with it. Mind boggling.

One can conclude it is about fear of higher world oil prices hurting them domestically more than it would Russia. Who might export less, its increasing price for its exports would make up for the restrictions or any embargo.

Given the switch to non fossil fuel will take time, therefore I sense this conflict will simply simmer for sometime to come…probably early winter 2022.

Ukraine-Fatigue:
By the passing week I am now starting to observe that to teach Russia a life lesson is now proving extremely challenging and laden with unknown unknowns and unacceptable trade offs for the united west. The appetite in Brussels or other EU capitals after a tub thumping initial condemnation is withering and Ukraine fatigue is settling in. While it may appear so, that west is united like never before, I see US loosing its clout and friends in regions that will matter to it the most in the coming decades. USD 32 billion arms aid to Ukraine may provide with the optics of solidarity but short of exposing US or NATO troops to a mutually assured destruction-it is unlikely to impact the outcome of this conflict.

I am not privy to the details of the number of ongoing meetings and what goes on in their sidelines but for an ordinary Pakistani I think he or she can take some heart for the moment as almost two month into this conflict and despite crippling sanctions the conflict is undecided. And I see a depleting and watered down European military on ground resolve…making room for diplomacy.

What do all these and certainly more events tell us? The quick take home message is Pakistan still has time and the seemingly immediate deadline to take decisions-side with US or Russia-the famous with us or against us choice has been pushed tad bit forward…important decision will still need to be made though.

To Leaders & Soldiers:
Right off the bat i suggests the easiest of litmus test. Might we ask our incumbent prime minister Mr. Shahbaz Sharif would he be willing to make a bid to buy Russian oil too. European, Indians and Chinese all are buying and the latter two are doing so without even openly condemning Russia as the aggressor. He should be then able to make a stronger case now that Islamabad has caved and condemned this as an aggression. This would be nothing more than an exercise in academic interest to clear the air and deliver on whether Imran Khan was a western persona non grata because of his Islamic Socialism ideals or it was just to ensure Pakistan toes western line. In my earlier writing I think it’s more of the former. Dear readers consider this a comic relief to the so far dense discussions and prevailing national sense of moral injury and violation. It’s a rhetorical suggestion and Mr. Sharif will not be able to run this simple experiment for us.

In my earlier article [provide link] I have identified both India and China as upcoming Civilization-States. Political Islam is a natural corollary and has to be this third Asiatic coalescence of kins. This merger is too risky yet for global foreign policy elites to sign off on. 

This hesitation should alert, alarm and send shivers up Pakistani foreign policy elites. Hypothetically let us suppose Pakistan has to make that choice. Is it ready? and do we even want to blend in with our western Islamic neighbors? Is Pakistan then going to choose Indic civilization neighbor on the east? Or how would it work? Maybe now was really an opportunity for Pakistan to prepare itself for this third hypothetical coalition-arguably very much likely in a few decades from now. Opportunity lost but I think it will not be the last. Maybe it still will be Imran Khan’s legacy, but maybe not to force the issue more than he already has, is prudent.
 
Imran Khan is neither a plebeian nor of an aristocratic birth. He might not admit but he has everything to loose and with that he risks a part from each one of the large segment of Pakistani population who see him as a reformer. So, learning from failure being his admitted strength – take a break. Maybe you are not the last part of this puzzle. Just play your role wisely – no unforced errors, rather wait and watch the European front while Mr. Sharif is helping Pakistan with a much needed political face.

Soldiers of Fortune is a label that our Army can no longer carry and yet be able to garner domestic love and writ. Whoever is in doubt must understand as of now Pakistan is in no shape to withstand the enormous challenge of building a civilization-state around it. It’s geography is a double edged sword. Where it is able to provide it with viable borders if it chooses to stay in the Nation State system it is equally perilous if it decides to go the civilization-state Muslim conglomerate-or Ummah path. I think it will be foolhardy just yet.
 
Any foreign policy elites who desire Ummah sentiments manifest in their lifetime must understand these urges are neither innovative now, nor were unjust at any time even prior. It just does not seem the right time for it just now-even though in theory it’s never too early to have the power and wherewithal of projecting an independent foreign policy in national interest…sad!

Before moving on to the ensuing final and prescriptive segment of this article I want to suggest to our foreign policy elites that Pakistanis are beginning to understand the disproportionate uneasiness of the nuclear crown Pakistan has to wear. Our Army and it’s deterrent power is a necessity. Unfortunately contrary to the traditional wisdom where a state first gains economic power and then flexes its military muscle. Pakistan for reasons beyond the scope of this article was forced to go about it other way around.
 
Renting our state and services on as needed basis in perpetuity is no longer tenable with the narrative that Imran Khan for good or worse has been able to create. Pakistan’s reactionary foreign policy is troubling. General beef is that a country the size of us cannot shoot from the hip or behave tangentially at whim. Everyone, most important of all Pakistanis need a reliable and predictable partner in their State. First bringing Taliban to Kabul and now unlearning of two decade worth of important lesson and having to go after their offshoot Tehreek Taliban Pakistan comes across as very silly and ho hum to be polite.
 
Just as Voltaire had jokingly remarked that Holy Roman Empire was neither Holy nor Roman nor an Empire. An unbiased observer can also say that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is neither Islamic nor a true Republic nor is it yet clear who constitutes as Pakistani. A professor of mine to my chagrin went on as far as to say that Pakistan is an unnatural state. I would tell these critics “I understand, however it’s home to millions and we mustn’t fail them who depend on us”.

Endgame Scenarios:
IF -after the European war of Ideologies is once again won by the United States and its allies, taking Imran Khan off the helm was then a bet in hindsight that paid off. However moving forward then Pakistan will be made to live under an Indian growing sphere. Akin to sharing a room with a stronger rival. That would neither be pleasing nor very stable. And Pakistan shouldn’t therefore be giving out any notions or assistance that won’t be tenable. As in both world wars European conflict ended up sucking in The United States. All it needed for justification was something in lines of Incident of Gulf of Tonkin and sinking of Lusitania. Another global war can easily escalate and situation spiraling out of hand. Therefore staying nonaligned has to be the only option…super important!

IF -Russia comes out as assertive then in principle, the maintenance of sanctity of borders of neighboring nation state will be lost, and with it Pakistani claim to its yet unformalized borders. This may sound as one of the theoretical outcomes. It’s not an impossible one. Are we prepared to avoid it or are we going to play right into it. What might be good for Islam in the long run for dreamers of Khorasan might not be salubrious news for the current State borders of Pakistan. Are our Praetorian Guards planning a face saving bargain to avoid that from happening with India and Afghanistan while they can. Time is now for this exercise to start at full court press…Godspeed!

Recommendations: If a representative parliament is present in-house it will give strength to our state and foreign policy elites in deciding whether to be part of (which will always be ill advised) or enable them to politely excuse under the precepts of a functioning democracy and its collective decision. Just as we had decided not to send troops to Yemen. Quick elections with hopes that fairness is generally agreed upon is the easiest of tasks at hand. 

Imran Khan should buy more time. I understand he might just feel it’s his calling but he must weigh in the the toll it’s going to have if he’s not the chosen one. The success rate of earlier messianic cults has been scaring low. People will loose their property, will have new masters and yet again not out of the his much despised imperial yoke. Hold! rev tad bit down. 

We must not come across as eager challengers ready to bandwagon the revanchist. There indeed is short term survival benefit by remaining within this acceptable system of Nation state & International Rule Based Liberal Order and see where the world goes in the short term. Drop for a while the Islamic Socialist aspiration and let someone else such as KSA or UAE show their hands. Without knowing their interest in this prior, wouldn’t it be a moot point to even think of it! 

Army shouldn’t decide unilaterally any longer and must not forget the humiliation this regime switch has caused. Without building up a civil political education cadre-as of yesterday! I feel my forces will always find themself hamstrung and in grievance with the political contenders. They must choose from the smartest, willing and indigenous. A Pakistan Political Academy is long overdue.
Towards the end we all must too understand, that to deal with a multi-generational trauma of “Ghulami” it’s OK to endure it a little longer lest underprepared adventurism backfires and pushes it out a few or more generations. Bad trade that would be.

/MQ…
maqhere.com

Background
American republic, separated by time and Atlantic Ocean, in parallel to its European lineage, over the centuries in my observation has morphed into a civilization of its own kind. Americans have so far not needed to appreciate this slow departure because of the shared racial supremacy and the power it brought along by its continued association. They have up till now, not only celebrated this common heritage with the Europeans & made kinship alliances with other states of similar cultural roots; they have fought with their money and blood the two world wars in support of and to the rescue of the Western Europeans.

While the Atlantists (USA and Europeans) celebrate their common racial & cultural origins, and share a common strategic vision; America’s own very social structure has insidiously taken a form which is very different from both it’s allies and the rest of the West. It has now morphed into a civilization of its own.

Cultural Shift and Drift
This slow cultural shift happened primarily due to the initial ideological differences that had led to the American independence. Other factors including but not limited to were its distance from the continental Europe, the Atlantic slave trade & all future waves of immigrations which brought along their respective culture’s contribution into the American melting pot.

This is reflected in American social hierarchy, health & economic system, public social safety network, cuisines, public holidays, sports, pop culture and even their language. All subtly but palpably deviated from the telos and trajectories of the Europe and its Union. This unique American milieu made America the land of opportunity that we all so adore and admire.

We must first accept & understand that this reality has evolved in a very pernicious manner and it is not yet an available part of the mainstream political diagnosis & discourse. With these cultural commons and their later drift & shift set as a priori, we move to the next layer of emulation and commonality.

Roman Emulation
We also observe two other common denominators. One, in the American form of government and second, in the Christian Faith; which sixty five percent of its citizens subscribe to. Firstly, I agree with the historian Will Durant that with respect to the form and writ of governance America has been modeling the Roman Empire of first few centuries of the first millennium. We find many imperial and exploitative parallels in the manner it conducts its state’s business and projects her power across the globe. And secondly, but of no lesser importance, is that it’s religion and faith too is shared with the Constantinean Rome and Europe of the late antiquity (200-700 c.e.). Therefore unsurprisingly both these transatlantic cultures identify themselves as posterity and flag bearers of the Judeo-Christian tradition.

Modern Nation State
United States with other European colonial powers, with above highlighted commonalities i.e (I) European decent, (II) Roman Governance Model & (III) Judeo-Christian roots now established, we move on to see that they adopt yet another commonality. Which is the framework of sovereign national democratic rule i.e. (IV) The Nation State.

We observe that over the past five or six centuries these countries (Nations) have mastered the art of Nation State system to their economic, political and common racial advantage. This is an unfortunate but an established fact of history with a large body of Post-colonialism literature to its support. Briefly, to refresh memory of my readers, The Nation State concept was originally a European system construct of the 1600s after the peace of Westphalia which was the need for a stable and predictable European commerce of that age. For reasons beyond the scope of this note I’ll leave this here for now.

From Nation to Civilization State
I have long contested, that not only this Nation State construct is failing by the decade purely by its zero-sum and unstable virtues, it may have just outlived its usefulness when current global problems of climate change and water scarcity, just to name a couple need to be addressed. We are also observing this crumbling of the cookie at its margins with the development of the schism/s between the continental Europe interests and the continental US interests. And with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine this schism is increasing and is bringing to bare, some of the deep seated differences within the EU & other Western alliances. Is this an inter civilizational divide in lines with western and eastern Roman Empire…we are not sure yet.

The Civilization-State:
Civilizations have come and gone. With inability to look into the future with certainty humans tend to find answers & solace in their past. And what is better to a humiliated present than a glorified past. What we are now seeing and about to explore a little more is not something new, but it is certainly new to modern state architecture of the Nation States map.

We are now beginning to see two current Nation States switching their identity to a new framework of Civilization-States e.g. Indic & Sinic civilizations asserting and wanting to be recognized not as Nation but as Civilizations. Muslim & Christian Orthodox remain the other two important remaining civilizations if we agree on leaving African and South American civilizations aside for the purpose of this article’s Asian focus.

Both Chinese and Indian diplomats are beginning to introduce themselves to the world leaders as representatives of Civilization-States and are refusing to accept & behave as Nation States are expected to in the western led loosely  rule based international liberal order (IRBILO). There are some unique differences between these two frameworks. A big one for our understanding can be that “as a civilization-state, China or for that matter India has it that it is organized around culture rather than politics. For a civilization-state, cultural ties are potentially more important than the mere legal status of citizenship. Linked to a civilization, the state has the paramount task of protecting a specific cultural tradition. Its reach encompasses all the regions where that culture is dominant’ [sic].

The global power structure (as in animal kingdom) depends of coalitions and alliances. In Asia we are seeing this change happen and US would now be making alliances not with Nation States, rather with countries who are beginning to assert themselves as Civilization-States. CCP is an obvious example & BJP too is moving away towards it as they firmly believe Hindus are a civilization and India not just a country. So the future alliances and conflicts insofar Asia is concerned, are going to be between these Civilizations, as Samuel Huntington’s important Foreign Affairs 1993 paper on “The Clash of the Civilizations?” predicts. Very important!

This segue is becoming a problem for the hagemon and the current superpower. Not only it has to adapt to these new realties where it must, it also must forbid remaining civilizational coalitions to occur.

Pakistan’s conundrum
If this be the case then, Pakistan is unique as it can trace itself both to Indic as well as Islamic civilization. With the first option we have a love-hate mixed feelings. And while the other camp is pseudo-available; it is too fragmented and divided even to acknowledge this new reality, let alone planning to project themselves as an Islamic Civilization State or Ummah.

Ouster of Imran Khan
This puts Pakistan in a bind. If it cannot become a Civilization State of it’s own soon enough in next 10-20 years (which in theory it can’t), it’s short term interest naturally will be to stay and try to survive as a Nation State (status quo). And yielding to, by making to stand in support of the US led Western response to the Russo-EU war, remains its obvious choice and some may say the only option. The current European conflict in its essence is in fact a clash of Civilizational Ideologies (Western vs. Orthodox + Sinic) and nothing else.

Understand that Imran Khan’s administration’s demise was not solely due to its poor governance, inflation, liking of the former Inter Service Intelligence chief (Lt. Gen Faiz) and misunderstandings with the all powerful Chief of Pakistani Army, or that he was a hurdle in the way of US policy for Af-Pak—rather far from holistic. Imran Khan provided that charismatic Islamic Socialist leader who “may” lead to the Islamic Civilizational State (as opposed to current workings of a Nation-State). And that in future is then going to be very problematic for the hegemon to adapt its policies to. How practical that Pakistani shift under Imran Khan or his likes might be is a topic to be explored at another time.

Crystal bowl
Challenge for Pakistan now is how to identify itself and find its way in this new landscape yet maintain the dubious logic of the Two Nation Theory. It’s entry to these new clubs and camps is neither clear nor easy and except for checking into the Islamic Civilizational structure it has no where else to go either. OPECs reluctance to increase pumping oil is seemingly sending cold sentiments towards western cause too. Making this option equally enticing yet uncertain and fraught with dangers to existing Pakistani borders.

In this uncertainty and shifting national reorientations based on Civilizational divide, just to avoid the Domino Geopolitical Theory actualizing, Pakistan can and must not be allowed to switch sides or re-identify itself just yet.

The Pakistani political drama is ongoing and we will all have to see it unfold together. But this exegesis may help us understand where this all current chaos is stemming from.

Neo-Roman Civilization
Its also not clear yet how this hybrid structure of Nation States in the West and Civilizational States of East will play in the sandbox. What is clear is that the current power structure suits the Atlantists and the Asiatics are not going to conform to that order for long. It is a theoretical possibility that in the coming decades it may so happen that USA may acknowledge its unique Neo-Roman Civilization and decide to rebuild State relationships with India and China at their terms. It is also possible US refuses to identify and engage with such as such. The Civilization-State has a problematic propensity of mission creep. It has the potential to speak for its Civilizational kins residing outside its borders. And that is something current system disallows. Acknowledging one State (India) as such and denying the same right to another (China) will also be problematic. Coming decades will tell us more how this interaction pans out. And would largely depend on how assertive China and India are going to be in their such demands. 

Hope is that to avoid a large scale conflict, with introspection US will reconfigure its foreign policy suited to its great power competition with the recognition of its new character of the Neo-Roman Civilization-State.

MQ…
maqhere.com

Q: Qazi IK has a very good chance of winning the next election but the strong anti-American stance that he is taking is foolish. What do you think about that?

A: Needs a sitting. Multiple facets. Plus we are not privy to any of the real variables that go into such decision matrices. Briefly: Yes – no one can expect to remain comfortable after rubbing the Hagemon (US) the wrong way. However, IK was not specifically against US-he just wanted to remain non-aligned. And this deviance from the accepted, paid for & established norm (ISI/Army/US Gath jor) was being threatened by IK to the perils of old and new US designs (good or bad besides the point because we don’t know). This is even more important especially during the times when West is fighting tooth and nail for its ideals. It’s not Russia-Ukraine; it’s Asiatic vs. Atlantis’s (i.e. Western ideals of nations with Atlantic shores). This uprising against the “Liberal Order” is long due & if not curbed now, can go out of hand. As you probably can see. So, hope that touches upon IK and his choices. Again we are not privy to vital info, therefore this remains nothing more than an opinion.

Simply put, a State gains it’s strength from its people. IK’s popularity is about to reach a critical mass IMO if left unchecked. So, he will be taken out (page from the good old textbook). But guess what…NO. Things have gotten very pervious these days. Chose a bomb & you risk throwing the jubilant population into anger. If you don’t then IK got you. Plus it’s the top 2-3 % maybe who have real interests abroad-rest gain if Pakistan State gains. So, Yup – completely baffled- in all honesty – Gimmicks Gimmicks Gimmicks. Unless US starts a hot war on Russian eastern front, this whole comedy is nonsensical to me. I even did the Math on Zia/USSR timing – lol.

As a side note – IK was was barely juggling domestic economy in a culture of corruption. And with Russia deciding to war with her neighbors IK came across the worst of the choices any PM wants to have-deciding contrary to the wishes of the Hagemon (US). He has as of today taken up with ALL of them & put all his eggs in the basket of the awam. I still think our population loves America & Army loves it even more, they gain all sorts of strength.

It’s an evolving situation. If PML is allowed street violence then very likely we have a civil war at our hands.

If IK goes down then the whole cause goes with him.

Very unstable situation.

/MQ…
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