Backdrop:
It’s relatively simpler for an individual to say I am not playing the “life game” as either I don’t get it, I am bad at it and the playing field is not level or it’s in conflict with my core beliefs etc. And with that one can break off, and to each their own. Instead, the individual survival instincts join hands and make the human as a collective play this challenge of “to live” together. Natural corollary of accepting such a challenging survival, is muddling through the fittest and to prepare ourselves psychologically that there are going to be winners and losers.
Peace generally has been an anomaly and war the norm. Warring contestants were individuals & bands perhaps in the very beginning. Then as we evolved to phonate & communicate we spread our ideas locally and when became able to write, they reached to a point that we coalesced covering a larger area. We made both friends and foes along this evolutionary process.
Foes and battles took a larger share of documented history. This may be a simple demand & supply effort on the part of historians for the readers or maybe it is indeed the conflict which is the real driver of change and we humans like to learn more from it by studying more about it.
Among various traditional etiologies of war, most recent one; after European enlightenment in my opinion is the conflict between and due to ideas or simply put “Ideological conflict”; ironically on how to best serve the human race -The Humanism. Spectrum of such ideologies commonly is understood as “The Political Left & The Political Right”. Interestingly we don’t come across Islamic version of such ideas. And Political Islam ostensibly is considered at political odds with the west’s democratic ideology-more on it a little later.
Fast forward to western colonial expansion. West and its ideology went on laying claims to the Old and the New World. It was a challenge to the old world order and by claiming the title all along the political Islam and it’s authority were subdued.
Where Pakistanis might find ourselves standing tomorrow, needs to be understood with the perspective of where and with whom we sit today. It is getting to the last quarter and there are years, & not decades left to prepare. Indecision is not our longer term friend. It can be though for short term (months)-as I argue later.
Background-Distant:
Democracy with its intuitive appeal originates from of the pagan Grecko-Roman culture long before the birth of Christ. Christian monotheism substituted for pagan deities as the official religion of Rome around 313 c.e. Posterities of that part of the Europe got okay with the Christian God from their Asian province of Judaea differing just on various iterations & interpretations of what constituted The Holy Trinity.
A millennium later however, in the illuminating garb of Renaissance & science we start to observe this departure back towards the ideals of the Roman Republic during the interluding Papal States. However it was not until a few centuries later that Europeans started discussing myths, dogmas and magic in light of science. One by one each started to have a slow domino fall. Previously unexplained natural phenomena (lightening/famine/plagues/celestial eclipse etc.) now were no longer due to wraths or blessings of a supernatural God in the cloud, rather they became phenomenons understood and subject to laws of Nature e.g. Astronomy took over Astrology, dogma got challenged with rational questions. Coupled with this liberation, the accumulation of wealth and economic shift to organized capitalism resulted in worldly dividends and dominance-Europe was becoming richer and happier. Naturally this progress took away the immediate desire to long for the presence of an omnipotent God.
A lackluster Muslim performance in Asia during the same centuries; i.e. after the printing press first arrived in Italy (mid fifteenth century-Ottomans discouraged its use) and trade routes circumventing Muslim controlled near East, that an organic movement we know as European renaissance caught onto Political Islam. Longtime adversary from right across the Bosphorus grew inferior & weak. Power & wealth had started to systematically shift to & accumulate in the European capitals…ebbs and flows of nature!
Background-Immediate:
With this private and state accumulation of wealth and general agreement on capitalism, European monarchs started to fancy with ideas of colonial expansions. Honing in more to recent times & our neighborhood, in Asia we observe two unique responses to this western colonial domination…humiliation & ownership.
First, India under the Raj & China after the Opium wars defeats. Both these civilizations felt so humiliated that as soon as both got their chance out from the imperial yoke, this humiliation became their impetus which then became a major driver of their progress (among others).
Second, British India’s independence movement was originally an Indian effort with carving of Pakistan towards the end & no taking away of kudos from all those involved in this struggling journey from the Muslim League members.
Let us leave China and it’s journey for some other time, in the interest of this article’s Pakistan focus. I argue it was because of this Indian humiliation being more & chronic, their efforts being more protracted & pronounced, that they took ownership of 1947 independence a lot more seriously than we did.
Indian Muslims woke from the fabled Rip Wan Winkle slumber and found themselves at the helm of Pakistan. A new country in a hostile milieu to be run under the directives of Pax Americana…choice made via 1950 state visit to US.
What we did with that public mandate in the last 75.8 years, who did what first and without going into whataboutism it suffices it to say that both India and Pakistan ended up choosing differing friends and paths. Important here is to note that this anti colonial struggle was a political freedom struggle & not an armed takeover. The point I want to drill down is that, Indian partition or Pakistani independence followed some rules acceptable to the then fitter global powers involved in that decision and process. Important!
Socio-Political Nigredo:
Pakistan was thus born to this Muslim household with the disheartening backdrop of Ottomans and the inherited rock and hard place choice of whether or not and when to, if to re-pursue political Islam. After all Pakistan was to become the ideal bastion of Islam. We were to now operate in a new world of democratic constraints carrying the colonial psychological handicap. This whole stack wasn’t amenable to a quick Democratic fix. Furthermore the indecision between Allah being the Sovereign or State is the sovereign lingers to this day. Academically these are two mutually exclusive statements and modern state architecture suggests it’s the State that is sovereign…one hears this word thrown around a lot these days.
Before we move to the current political kinetics, I want to share with my readers the unique denial & optimism combination that monotheism shares. Judaism has had the longest run of persecution and oppression in history. And up until WW-2 had remained in this denial-optimism limbo. Jewish history from followers of the Roman subject Shimon bar Yochai to the Ottoman subject Sabbatai Zevi is rife with such celestial hope in face of earthly oppression. It’s in the aftermath of WW-2 that we see a rise in atheism stemming from horrifying disbelief in their guardian faith. Persecuted Christianity in its nascency too promised the Kingdom of Haven to its oppressed believers living under the yoke of the Roman purple. Most recently it is now the Muslims who are toying and holding on to this tension of the opposites…ponder!
With these fetters understood and agreeing on that nations survive competitively with goal to avert scarcity and achieve plenty. We can commence to configure where do we go from here. What I see now is an organic Nigredo that Pakistan in my opinion is going through. I call it a Socio-Political Nigredo. It is like we or our national psyche is in The Garden of Gethsemane. Which is a place of life crisis; it permits no escape or compromise. There, we suffer the agony of choosing between personal will or willing submission to something greater [sic].
West and it’s major revolutions (American & French) figured out to separate the crown and the clergy and went back to their Greco-Roman democracy and its institutions. Science, logic laid newer and stronger foundations of modern democracy and due to paucity of independent reasoning (Ijtihaad) Islam remained more dogmatic than rational by western standards.
These are therefore two not fully congruous political systems. Each has and caters to a different Sovereign (State & Allah). Efforts towards finding a sweet spot or a common meeting ground between them remains a political unicorn at best. Democracy has had mixed & disappointing results but without a viable alternate it is all there is on the menu and I further argue, it is a constraint that we must first master before making attempts at revitalization of Political Islam.
In my earlier article I’ve gone in details of an upcoming alternative on the 10 year horizon. It is of a Civilization-State. [link please]
Opportunity in adversity
I implore my readers to first drill in the background of where we realistically stood at the culmination of western colonial rule. It makes it easier for us to understand the system and it’s constraints. Only then we can start to analyze some more interesting facts that Pakistan can use if we look into the Intra-Western struggle for dominance that follows similar script albeit with a change of actors.
Agreed by most western academics is the observation that ever since the Elizabethan era (1558-1603) England has and will not like to see a stronger European power on the European continent. With the victory of Emmanuel Macron again who will vie for greater French continental dominance and the collective western resolve captioned as “Why Ukraine must win” in its April 2nd-8th Economist, it can be construed that the European war is going to be a protracted Russo-Ukrainian conflict with its aftershocks. Leading to a weakened and possibly divided nationalist Europe.
Pakistan must first understand this tug of war that Continental Europe and UK has historically played out. I cautiously assume many of Pakistani foreign policy elites may already do. To hedge against the perceived similar Russian aggression and expansion, NATO will shortly welcome two new member countries, Sweden and Finland. New NATO membership free ride will add to the Democratic complexity in Brussels if not the policy complexion in the long run. Making it more dysfunctional than it currently is criticized for.
Being divided, dysfunctional and yet dependent on Russian oil and gas is not a good combination. Both energy producers and recipients are going to find other markets in the long term. Russian energy will then siphon to Asia in the medium to long term giving the highest bidder what it can afford to invest in its economy. The two most obvious buyers are going to be India and China. Eventually strengthening each’s relative say in the world affairs.
Devils Due:
So far from this article my reader may incorrectly conclude that West and its system has to be the mother of all ills. I must defend this first with two examples perhaps related to current events and stress that no system is a panacea.
First- A lot of Western values are laudable especially when it comes to Humanism-and not all is evil or lost in our collective evolutionary human journey. It is once these ideologies of how best to serve the human race -a common end- come at odds on agreeing on the means to do that. In a collision path with the most of the rest, western led order under-appreciates the tail end costs of offering liberal capitalist democracy at all costs. This structural problem is failing the world that depends and runs on their order. It equates to failing oneself by failing to admit to the fact that no laws can be made contrary and in conflict to the local societal customs and still be expected to have a willing compliance…doesn’t fly that way.
Greeko-Roman democracy was born to a pagan Greece under martial and aristocratic oversight. It was its very indigenousness that helped it garner such good genes that it’s still alive. It’s Fast track imposition and implementation in a non pagan culture where sovereign is never the state and always is the Spinoza’s One or Mohammed’s Allah or the Jewish Yahweh-shall always be problematic. I again carefully surmise many of western foreign policy elites do understand this. And It’s likely that in a level playing field the west shall find itself heckled as “emperor without clothes” if they walked through the streets of Middle East capitals among a crowd that sees their version of Humanism from their lens.
Second- Is the claim that Democracies go to war less. The power in democracies is not as consolidated as in authoritative variations. This premise has provided for less international conflict. I appreciate this claim to the degree if I look at post WW-II Europe. However this has not given similar returns on investment and rather has led to slow prolonged societal death in countries where it’s values are in conflict to their regional customs. The liberal international order has been always more western than global — and often failed to uphold order as argued by Financial Times columnist Edward Luce who goes on to suggest that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers a chance to reconsider this largely western concept.
Shifting Sands:
Pakistan is down but not out. It remains an extremely important country geopolitically. Perhaps not as economically vital but in no less way still very important to be kept viable…good news.
Prophetic commentary on international politics requires besides all else, a true insider’s knowledge of the proceedings of the involved parties. Unfortunately that rarely is the case and observers have to keep a track on the temporarily, causality and plausibility of events. Just like you and I are out there daily because someone has to pay the bills, similarly world leaders are in perpetual state of engagement to meet their desired national ends. And this flux is quite telling if not prescriptive.
Therefore in that vein one needs to look at important developments, and must stop to question-Why is Mohammed Bin Sultan and Imran Khan equally disliked by Jo Biden.
Why is Erdogan after a long spite with MBS over Adnan Khashogi now visiting the Kingdom and hugging MBS and getting over the Khashogi tragedy.
Why is EU is being egged to trigger force majeure clauses so that Lloyds insurance can stop insuring the sea oil tanker trade to further squeeze it tighter on Russia & why London who is so against Russian aggression, is not so excited about this proposal.
Why US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has cautioned over outright bans and oil embargo.
Why is Ukraine re-building war-damaged oil pipelines connecting Russia to Europe & remains okay with revenue that comes with it. Mind boggling.
One can conclude it is about fear of higher world oil prices hurting them domestically more than it would Russia. Who might export less, its increasing price for its exports would make up for the restrictions or any embargo.
Given the switch to non fossil fuel will take time, therefore I sense this conflict will simply simmer for sometime to come…probably early winter 2022.
Ukraine-Fatigue:
By the passing week I am now starting to observe that to teach Russia a life lesson is now proving extremely challenging and laden with unknown unknowns and unacceptable trade offs for the united west. The appetite in Brussels or other EU capitals after a tub thumping initial condemnation is withering and Ukraine fatigue is settling in. While it may appear so, that west is united like never before, I see US loosing its clout and friends in regions that will matter to it the most in the coming decades. USD 32 billion arms aid to Ukraine may provide with the optics of solidarity but short of exposing US or NATO troops to a mutually assured destruction-it is unlikely to impact the outcome of this conflict.
I am not privy to the details of the number of ongoing meetings and what goes on in their sidelines but for an ordinary Pakistani I think he or she can take some heart for the moment as almost two month into this conflict and despite crippling sanctions the conflict is undecided. And I see a depleting and watered down European military on ground resolve…making room for diplomacy.
What do all these and certainly more events tell us? The quick take home message is Pakistan still has time and the seemingly immediate deadline to take decisions-side with US or Russia-the famous with us or against us choice has been pushed tad bit forward…important decision will still need to be made though.
To Leaders & Soldiers:
Right off the bat i suggests the easiest of litmus test. Might we ask our incumbent prime minister Mr. Shahbaz Sharif would he be willing to make a bid to buy Russian oil too. European, Indians and Chinese all are buying and the latter two are doing so without even openly condemning Russia as the aggressor. He should be then able to make a stronger case now that Islamabad has caved and condemned this as an aggression. This would be nothing more than an exercise in academic interest to clear the air and deliver on whether Imran Khan was a western persona non grata because of his Islamic Socialism ideals or it was just to ensure Pakistan toes western line. In my earlier writing I think it’s more of the former. Dear readers consider this a comic relief to the so far dense discussions and prevailing national sense of moral injury and violation. It’s a rhetorical suggestion and Mr. Sharif will not be able to run this simple experiment for us.
In my earlier article [provide link] I have identified both India and China as upcoming Civilization-States. Political Islam is a natural corollary and has to be this third Asiatic coalescence of kins. This merger is too risky yet for global foreign policy elites to sign off on.
This hesitation should alert, alarm and send shivers up Pakistani foreign policy elites. Hypothetically let us suppose Pakistan has to make that choice. Is it ready? and do we even want to blend in with our western Islamic neighbors? Is Pakistan then going to choose Indic civilization neighbor on the east? Or how would it work? Maybe now was really an opportunity for Pakistan to prepare itself for this third hypothetical coalition-arguably very much likely in a few decades from now. Opportunity lost but I think it will not be the last. Maybe it still will be Imran Khan’s legacy, but maybe not to force the issue more than he already has, is prudent.
Imran Khan is neither a plebeian nor of an aristocratic birth. He might not admit but he has everything to loose and with that he risks a part from each one of the large segment of Pakistani population who see him as a reformer. So, learning from failure being his admitted strength – take a break. Maybe you are not the last part of this puzzle. Just play your role wisely – no unforced errors, rather wait and watch the European front while Mr. Sharif is helping Pakistan with a much needed political face.
Soldiers of Fortune is a label that our Army can no longer carry and yet be able to garner domestic love and writ. Whoever is in doubt must understand as of now Pakistan is in no shape to withstand the enormous challenge of building a civilization-state around it. It’s geography is a double edged sword. Where it is able to provide it with viable borders if it chooses to stay in the Nation State system it is equally perilous if it decides to go the civilization-state Muslim conglomerate-or Ummah path. I think it will be foolhardy just yet.
Any foreign policy elites who desire Ummah sentiments manifest in their lifetime must understand these urges are neither innovative now, nor were unjust at any time even prior. It just does not seem the right time for it just now-even though in theory it’s never too early to have the power and wherewithal of projecting an independent foreign policy in national interest…sad!
Before moving on to the ensuing final and prescriptive segment of this article I want to suggest to our foreign policy elites that Pakistanis are beginning to understand the disproportionate uneasiness of the nuclear crown Pakistan has to wear. Our Army and it’s deterrent power is a necessity. Unfortunately contrary to the traditional wisdom where a state first gains economic power and then flexes its military muscle. Pakistan for reasons beyond the scope of this article was forced to go about it other way around.
Renting our state and services on as needed basis in perpetuity is no longer tenable with the narrative that Imran Khan for good or worse has been able to create. Pakistan’s reactionary foreign policy is troubling. General beef is that a country the size of us cannot shoot from the hip or behave tangentially at whim. Everyone, most important of all Pakistanis need a reliable and predictable partner in their State. First bringing Taliban to Kabul and now unlearning of two decade worth of important lesson and having to go after their offshoot Tehreek Taliban Pakistan comes across as very silly and ho hum to be polite.
Just as Voltaire had jokingly remarked that Holy Roman Empire was neither Holy nor Roman nor an Empire. An unbiased observer can also say that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is neither Islamic nor a true Republic nor is it yet clear who constitutes as Pakistani. A professor of mine to my chagrin went on as far as to say that Pakistan is an unnatural state. I would tell these critics “I understand, however it’s home to millions and we mustn’t fail them who depend on us”.
Endgame Scenarios:
IF -after the European war of Ideologies is once again won by the United States and its allies, taking Imran Khan off the helm was then a bet in hindsight that paid off. However moving forward then Pakistan will be made to live under an Indian growing sphere. Akin to sharing a room with a stronger rival. That would neither be pleasing nor very stable. And Pakistan shouldn’t therefore be giving out any notions or assistance that won’t be tenable. As in both world wars European conflict ended up sucking in The United States. All it needed for justification was something in lines of Incident of Gulf of Tonkin and sinking of Lusitania. Another global war can easily escalate and situation spiraling out of hand. Therefore staying nonaligned has to be the only option…super important!
IF -Russia comes out as assertive then in principle, the maintenance of sanctity of borders of neighboring nation state will be lost, and with it Pakistani claim to its yet unformalized borders. This may sound as one of the theoretical outcomes. It’s not an impossible one. Are we prepared to avoid it or are we going to play right into it. What might be good for Islam in the long run for dreamers of Khorasan might not be salubrious news for the current State borders of Pakistan. Are our Praetorian Guards planning a face saving bargain to avoid that from happening with India and Afghanistan while they can. Time is now for this exercise to start at full court press…Godspeed!
Recommendations: If a representative parliament is present in-house it will give strength to our state and foreign policy elites in deciding whether to be part of (which will always be ill advised) or enable them to politely excuse under the precepts of a functioning democracy and its collective decision. Just as we had decided not to send troops to Yemen. Quick elections with hopes that fairness is generally agreed upon is the easiest of tasks at hand.
Imran Khan should buy more time. I understand he might just feel it’s his calling but he must weigh in the the toll it’s going to have if he’s not the chosen one. The success rate of earlier messianic cults has been scaring low. People will loose their property, will have new masters and yet again not out of the his much despised imperial yoke. Hold! rev tad bit down.
We must not come across as eager challengers ready to bandwagon the revanchist. There indeed is short term survival benefit by remaining within this acceptable system of Nation state & International Rule Based Liberal Order and see where the world goes in the short term. Drop for a while the Islamic Socialist aspiration and let someone else such as KSA or UAE show their hands. Without knowing their interest in this prior, wouldn’t it be a moot point to even think of it!
Army shouldn’t decide unilaterally any longer and must not forget the humiliation this regime switch has caused. Without building up a civil political education cadre-as of yesterday! I feel my forces will always find themself hamstrung and in grievance with the political contenders. They must choose from the smartest, willing and indigenous. A Pakistan Political Academy is long overdue.
Towards the end we all must too understand, that to deal with a multi-generational trauma of “Ghulami” it’s OK to endure it a little longer lest underprepared adventurism backfires and pushes it out a few or more generations. Bad trade that would be.
/MQ…
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