High Risk High Reward Game

Kabul 2021 is being compared to Saigon 1975. After that (humiliation or whatever) US took care of USSR and stayed strong. Now again the same script will be followed, but for Sino/Pak.

While It is an opportunity for the two (Pakistan more than CCP) to assert and shine on world stage, it inherently carries very high stakes and remains a plot fraught and ridden with dangers.

I feel establishing regional stability, which is acceptable equally to the Afghans and to the international community is doable. But reaching that shall require a lot of linear commitment (10-15 year planning with adherence), likes of which we have not seen in Pakistani political spheres before.

Furthermore and more dangerous (IMO) is the positive feedback cycle of inflation of misplaced confidence leading to “Creep to Kashmir” and “Idealization of Khorasan”. Allowing this can (and will) lead to major problems for the borders of the State of Pakistan as we now know on the map. Pakistan therefore must not fail to loose focus and must keep their side of the promise.

The gauntlet is now theirs to pick as they had so desired. And while it’s doable likes of such remain unprecedented.